Thursday, July 28, 2016

Foreign Money driving markets: The beginning of the Bubble?!

‘’17000 crores pumped by foreign investors in Equities and Debt‘’

‘’Cabinet approves raising FDI to 15% in Indian Stock Exchanges, a depository, a banking company, an insurance company, a commodity derivative exchange’’

No to FDI before elections, fervent pitches and a slew of measures to attract FDI after elections. Political implications apart, are we in our greedy pursuit for foreign money putting the economy in a currency crisis like situation??!

Carry trade: A lot of FII money that comes into India has often been associated with P-notes while the rest has often been credited to the easy money policies of countries, which seems to the case now with the Shinzo Abe government of Japan planning to release a stimulus package of 265 Billion $ to stimulate the economy & The Bank of Britain expected to do the same in the near future. It is simple economics that a considerable part of investment would find its way to the bright spot in the World – India. The situation of the South East Asian currency crisis and where we are looks the same: Foreign investors pumping money, asset classes getting over valued and Indian retail investor participation increasing – Are we again headed to a situation where the valuations will rise and then the FII (fly by night money, as in popular nomenclature) money disappears causing a horrible crash! Scary are the eerie realities!

Foreign Exchange reserves: Adding to the worry is the fact that we have amassed one of the largest foreign exchange reserves in the world, chink in the armor the composition which is roughly 70% of FII money or fly by night money and the rest 30% FDI, thereby putting the delicate Current Account at a further risk

The situation may look grim, but the very prospect of not having 100% capital account convertibility could prove to be a blessing and an insulation against these vagaries. However there has to be a cautious approach to selectively open up rather than using it as a bandage effort to try repair/rebuild the economy.

The question however remains, are we as a country ready to embrace 100% capital account convertibility??? Read on the next article to know more!

Till then... 

Read, Ponder and Forget!



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